About Me

A writer trapped in the body of a different writer.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Baseball Philosophy: SSS

My last post is garbage.

If I 'actually' acquired $50-55 of spare change per year, my ceramic containers of change would be overflowing.

And they are not.

My sample size of 76 days is only about 20% of a year, which seems in hindsight too small of a percentage to accurately 'predict' or 'forecast' a trend.

The idea of the Small Sample Size stuck with me from baseball:

That Player A hits a mammoth homerun on Opening Day does NOT Mean he will finish the season with 162 homeruns.

I often ask myself: Is this a large enough sample size to use for accurate predictions?

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